A Saudi ceasefire provides some hope of ending the war in Yemen

AFTER FIVE years of war, Saudi Arabia and its allies are laying down their arms in Yemen—for two weeks. The unilateral ceasefire, said the Saudis, was prompted by fears of covid-19 spreading into Yemen, the region’s poorest country, which does not have the capacity to deal with a big outbreak. But it is also indicative of a shift in Saudi thinking over the past year. Yemen’s plight is often described as the world's worst humanitarian crisis. More than 100,000 people have been killed in the conflict. Most of the blame has been placed on Saudi Arabia. With its image in tatters and no clear path to victory, the kingdom has been looking for a way out.

The ceasefire is Saudi Arabia's most significant step towards peace since it intervened on behalf of the Yemeni government, which was toppled by the Houthis, a group of Shia rebels, in 2014. The war has grown messier over time, with Saudi Arabia backing local groups that often don’t get along, and Iran arming the Houthis. A vicious Saudi air campaign pushed the Houthis back early on, but it has failed to dislodge them from north-western Yemen, including the capital, Sana’a (see map). Saudi Arabia’s main international ally, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), backed away from the war last year. The kingdom itself has engaged in secret talks with the Houthis, aimed at securing its border and stopping their missile strikes on its territory.

The UN has been pushing both sides to de-escalate and focus on stemming covid-19. But it is unclear if the Houthis will lay down their arms, even temporarily. As the Saudis were about to make their announcement, the Houthis released an eight-page peace plan. They are still fighting, though. In recent weeks they have made gains in the provinces of Jawf and Marib. Control of Marib, an oil-and-gas hub, would not only hand the Houthis valuable resources; it would also make it harder for the government and allied tribes to wage war. Government-aligned forces use bases in Marib city to launch air and ground attacks in the north. Shortly after the ceasefire was announced, the Houthis reportedly fired a ballistic missile at the city.

Yemen’s warring parties have agreed to a handful of local ceasefires since the start of the war. None of them has held. Today, as well as in Jawf and Marib, there are fronts in Hodeida, Abyan and Taiz. Government forces and southern separatists, backed by the UAE, are fighting for control of the south, despite having signed a power-sharing agreement in Riyadh last year. The jihadists of al-Qaeda and Islamic State are also active in the region. But there is, perhaps, more hope now. The Saudis say the ceasefire could be extended to allow the combatants to discuss the UN’s proposals for a political solution in Yemen. Tenuous as the truce may be, Martin Griffiths, the UN’s special envoy to Yemen, hopes it will pave the way for talks.

The UN is using the pandemic to plead for peace all over. Last month its secretary-general, António Guterres, called for a worldwide ceasefire in order to focus on the coronavirus. Saudi Arabia appears to be the first warring party to respond to his call. The kingdom itself has been traumatised by the virus. As many as 150 members of the royal family are believed to be infected. The kingdom’s best doctors and hospitals are preparing for an influx of royals. As yet, Yemen has no reported cases (and no reliable way of counting them). Nor are there enough doctors and hospitals to treat patients should an outbreak occur.