War or Peace: Could COVID-19 Tip the Balance in Afghanistan?

The coronavirus is spreading through Afghanistan, which is poorly prepared for this public health challenge and where weak trust in government is a deep-seated problem. A political stalemate follows the disputed 2019 presidential election, with two candidates claiming the right to govern. Peace processes have slowed. Even so, there are hopes that the COVID-19 crisis might inspire cooperation and moves towards peace. Globally, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres has appealed for a global cease-fire to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. There are some hopeful, albeit very fragile, signs of openings in Afghanistan.

While there are reports that some Afghans—fearing religious stigma attached to the virus—are hiding their symptoms, the government and religious leaders are working together. The National Ulema Council issued a declaration in March calling on Muslims to pray in their homes, and the government and religious leaders coordinated to send doctors to mosques to speak about how the virus spreads and how people can protect themselves. Religious leaders and doctors deliver messages together over bullhorns about the importance of staying home. While Taliban spokesperson Zabiullah Mujahid initially called the virus a “decree of Allah,” perhaps sent to punish the wicked, the Taliban has since then issued statements that they will cooperate with health workers on COVID-19, urging aid organizations to provide assistance in areas under their control, and promising to allow safe passage for health workers. On April 2, they announced a cease-fire in all areas under their control hit by the coronavirus. Afghan religious leaders have called for a cease-fire and cooperation between the Taliban and the government. These moves suggest hope that this crisis might bring the government and the Taliban together. This might offer a moment when all sides can focus on saving lives. 

There is a potential to advance peace in the midst of this crisis, if all involved push for it.

(Based on: April 16, 2020, USIP publication)