The four charts that show the UK is beating coronavirus

By Saturday millions of people across the UK will have been under lockdown for two months, but now pockets are emerging across the country where the virus is being stamped out.

The prevalence of Covid-19 has fallen by as much as 40 per cent in just two weeks, and statisticians have estimated deaths from the virus could be eliminated by next month.

As the clamour for lifting lockdown grows, falling numbers of infections and deaths can provide hope, but they come amid stark warnings against undoing the hard work achieved since March and risking a second wave.

Diagnosed cases at new low

The UK is now well beyond the peak in new cases, and the number of infections detected has fallen significantly throughout May.

In the two weeks since May 6, the average number of new infections over the previous seven days dropped by almost 40 per cent (37.9).

Fewer than 2,500 new cases were detected on May 20, almost 30 per cent lower than the same day the previous week.

It comes after a worrying plateau in the number of new cases lasting since early April. For almost 40 days the average number of daily new cases failed to fall below 4,000, but recent days there has been a sharp decline.

The delay has left the UK trailing its neighbours in feeling secure to venture out of lockdown.

Denmark allowed schools to reopen on April 13, followed by some small businesses a week later. The country was one of the first in Europe to take action to arrest movement, imposing a lockdown on March 11, almost two weeks before the UK.

In the Czech Republic a state of emergency was declared the same day, before the country had recorded its first death, and an easing of restrictions came on April 20.

It meant total lockdown was only in place for 33 days in Denmark and 40 days in the Czech Republic.

Past the peaks

According to data released by the Office for National Statistics, it is now clear deaths from coronavirus in hospitals across England and Wales peaked in April 8, and the spike in care home deaths came just over a week later, around April 17.

The Government has been roundly criticised for the lack of protection afforded to care homes, and while it is not yet clear what caused the delay in the peak of deaths, they are now are falling in all settings.

In the fortnight between 24 April and 8 May, the number of weekly care home deaths fell by 40 per cent, and deaths in hospital fell by 59 per cent.

It left more people dying from coronavirus in the community than in hospitals in England and Wales for the first time, paving the way for the number of patients in hospital with Covid-19 to fall below 10,000 for the first time this week.

Some leading statisticians have estimated deaths from coronavirus in Britain could peter out by the end of June if current trends continue, but warned hospitals and care homes need strict monitoring to ensure no further outbreaks..

The number of deaths on Monday was 545, down from 627 a week ago, and the seven-day average is now 378. Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that, on average, deaths are now falling at a rate of around 30 each day.

Carl Heneghan, professor of evidence-based medicine at the University of Oxford, said that there would be a sporadic rise and fall in deaths over the next four to six weeks but he would not expect to find coronavirus listed in the ONS death data by the end of June. 

Speaking at a briefing in central London, Prof Henegan said: "I think you can already see that regions are reporting 48 hours without deaths, trusts are starting to do that.

"I think by the end of June we'll be looking at the data and finding it difficult to find people with this illness in the deaths if the current trends continue.

"But we will continue to have these sporadic ups and downs for about four to six weeks. People shouldn't panic if we have no deaths for a couple of days and then we have eight or 10 because you will see that, as we go down to lower numbers, we will have a bit more variation in the data."

Some hospitals almost Covid-free

As some of the smallest NHS trusts in England are beginning to enjoy successive days with no new Covid-19 deaths, many others have seen significant falls in fatalities.

Of the 218 trusts covered in daily data from NHS England, some 167 have seen reductions in the number of coronavirus deaths between the periods of 8-14 April and 8-14 May, the latest period for which full and reliable data is available.

The trusts which have seen the largest drops in the number of deaths are University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust in the Midlands, and London's Barts Health NHS Trust and the Royal Free London Nhs Foundation Trust.

Find out how many NHS deaths there have been in your local Trust by searching the table below

These trusts have seen the number of deaths in the weeks commencing 8 April and 8 May fall by 156, 126 and 97 respectively. University Hospitals Birmingham, a Trust at the forefront of the battle against the coronavirus outbreak in the West Midlands, saw 180 deaths between 8 and 14 April, compared to just 24 between 8 and 14 May.

While a handful of England's NHS trusts have seen more deaths between 8-14 May compared to 8-14 April, none have seen deaths increase by double figures.

The trust which has seen the largest increase in coronavirus deaths between the 8-14 April and 8-14 May periods is Doncaster And Bassetlaw Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, with deaths increasing from 22 to 28.

The 'R' value still hovers below 1

The Government Office for Science has announced that the latest 'R' number range for the UK is now 0.7 to 1.0, up from 0.5 to 0.9 last weekend. The reproduction 'R' number is the average that shows many people one person with coronavirus will pass it on to.

A government source said the epidemic had now largely moved into care homes and hospitals, and that the number of infections in the community was "very, very little".

Analysis by Public Health England (PHE) and Cambridge University calculated on May 11 that the 'R' reproduction rate had fallen to 0.4 in London, with the number of new cases halving every 3.5 days.

On March 23 – at the peak of contagion when lockdown was announced – 213,000 people a day caught the virus in London, according to the research.

That fell dramatically as soon as the restrictions were brought in, tumbling below 10,000 by April 7. 

Despite significant progress made to reduce the spread of the virus in London, Mr Dowden said on Wednesday London's schools and non-essential retail stores would for now remain on the same timetable as the rest of the country. 

"The Prime Minister set out the path we will go down in terms of easing the lockdown. He set out this three-stage process," he said.

"The next stage we've said is from the beginning of June around for example opening up non-essential retail." 

Lockdown measures are expected to be eased further at the beginning of June, when some primary school children will be allowed to return to classrooms.