Middle East and Africa | A name to die for

Leaders of Islamic State have a short life-expectancy

The organisation is diminished but not defeated

A member of Hashed Al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization units) removes a sign on a lamp post bearing the logo of the Islamic State (IS) group as Iraqi forces advance inside the town of Tal Afar, west of Mosul, after the Iraqi government announced the launch of the operation to retake it from IS control, on August 26, 2017. / AFP PHOTO / AHMAD AL-RUBAYE        (Photo credit should read AHMAD AL-RUBAYE/AFP via Getty Images)
Few still rally to this bannerImage: AFP
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Two things can be said with some confidence about the next leader of Islamic State (IS), the jihadist terror group that once controlled swathes of Iraq and Syria. He is likely to be called al-Qurayshi—and is unlikely to live to a great age. On April 30th Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, announced that in an operation the day before, run by his country’s intelligence agency, the latest leader of is, Abu Hussein al-Qurayshi, had been “neutralised”.

The raid apparently took place in the northern Syrian town of Jindires, close to the Turkish border, some 46km from Aleppo. For Mr Erdogan, who faces a tight election next week, it was an opportunity to remind voters of his strongman credentials. He vowed that Turkey would continue its “struggle with terrorist organisations without any discrimination”.

The latest al-Qurayshi took over as leader of is in November last year, a few weeks after the death of his predecessor. Abu al-Hassan al-Hashemi al-Qurayshi had been killed in Syria’s southern province of Deraa by a faction of the Free Syrian Army, a loose coalition of moderate rebel forces opposed to the regime of Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad. He, in turn, had succeeded Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi. This one, holed up in the rebel-held Syrian province of Idlib, had blown up himself and his family when cornered in a firefight with American special forces in February last year.

Al-Qurayshi is a nom de guerre that all three short-lived is leaders have adopted since the death of its first and most notorious caliph, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, in 2019. It suggests descent from the Quraysh, the leading tribe in Mecca during the lifetime of the Prophet Muhammad. It is unclear how much authority the name confers over what is now a much looser-knit, cell-based group after its ejection from its strongholds in Syria and Iraq. Since any known is commanders are prime targets, operational security is a priority for them; hence they keep the lowest of profiles.

is is much diminished from its glory days when it controlled about a third of Syria and 40% of Iraq. But it still has influence among insurgent groups in parts of west Africa, which continue to perpetrate violence across the region, and it has a spectacularly nasty branch in Afghanistan. It is also still a threat in Syria. Western intelligence agencies think the organisation can call on 6,000-10,000 fighters in Iraq and Syria and has many more followers.

Quite apart from the routine roadside bombings, ambushes and hit-and-run attacks, a particular concern is stopping is from trying to liberate the 10,000 or so militants held in prisons and detention camps in north-east Syria. These are guarded by the mainly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces. In January last year, is fighters attacked Ghuwayran prison in that area in an attempt to free 3,000 of their comrades, many of them foreigners whom their own countries do not want back. The ten-day battle left more than 500 people dead, about three-quarters of them is prisoners, and required American and British special forces and air power to intervene before the Kurds could regain control.

This article appeared in the Middle East & Africa section of the print edition under the headline "A name to die for"

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