Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 2, 2024

Media

Podcasts

Cyber

Military & Security

Politics

What types of threat actors will be most active leading up to the election?

Essential Geopolitics: Election-Related Cyber Threats in the U.S.

Columns

On Geopolitics

Iran

Israel

People attend the funeral procession in Tehran, Iran, on April 5, 2024, for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members killed in a recent Israeli strike in Syria.

Israel and Iran have shown they can stand on the brink and still step back. But future confrontations will run the risk of derailing strategic logic in their behavior, potentially trapping them in a war neither wants.

For Israel and Iran, April's Exchange Ushers In a New Era of Deterrence

China

Japan

What is the future of Japan and the U.S.'s military relationship?

Essential Geopolitics: What Continued U.S.-Japan Cooperation Means for China

Panama

Panama presidential candidate Jose Raul Mulino of the conservative Realizing Goals party gestures during a campaign rally in Panama City on April 28, 2024. 

Economics

The Central American country's next president will take office at a time of deepening economic challenges and political tensions, creating business uncertainty and unrest risks in the years ahead.


Previewing Panama's Presidential Election

Australia

Fiji

Indonesia

New Zealand

North Korea

Philippines

Singapore

South Korea

Vietnam

United Kingdom

India

A 3D rendering of Southeast Asia from space at night with city lights showing Southeast Asian cities in Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia.

Environment, Science & Technology

In the Asia-Pacific, countries are increasingly pursuing complex networks of political, economic and defense ties as part of a burgeoning "multi-alignment" strategy that seeks to avoid U.S.-China strategic competition.

Examining 'Multi-Alignment' in the Asia-Pacific

U.S.-China Relations

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Argentina

Bolivia

Peru

Palestinian Territories

France

Spain

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and his wife, Begona Gomez, arrive Oct. 5, 2023, at the Carlos V Palace at the Alhambra in Granada, Spain. Sanchez is expected to make an announcement about his political future on April 29 following his surprise decision April 25 to suspend public appearances after a court in Madrid announced an investigation into his wife for alleged influence-peddling and corruption.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: South American Foreign Ministers Visit China, the Spanish Premier Announces His Political Future

Pakistan

A welcoming billboard displaying an image of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (left) and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is seen along a street in Karachi, Pakistan, on April 22, 2024. 

Energy

Pakistan and Iran's embattled pipeline project, which has faced delays amid funding issues and U.S. sanction concerns, could impede recent efforts to boost bilateral cooperation.

For Pakistan and Iran, a Delayed Pipeline Could Undermine Improved Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Snapshots

Morocco

Moroccan Air Force mechanics examine an F-16 fighter jet at an airbase in Ben Guerir, about 58 kilometers north of Marrakesh, Morocco, on June 14, 2021. 

Pressure from its pro-Palestinian population will not deter Morocco from using Israeli technology to expand its domestic weapons capabilities, as Rabat seeks to catch up to Algeria’s military power and position itself as an arms exporter.

Despite the Gaza War, Morocco-Israel Defense Ties Look Set to Deepen

U.S. Naval Update Map: April 25, 2024

Russia

Moldova

People hold Moldovan national flags as they gather outside the presidential palace in Chisinau on Dec. 14, 2023, to celebrate the European Council's decision to open accession talks with Moldova.

In the lead-up to the October presidential election and referendum on Moldova's EU integration, Moscow and its Moldovan political allies will step up their efforts to destabilize the country's pro-European government.

In Moldova, Two Key Votes Portend More Pro-Russian Political Agitation

Latest

Perhaps the one area where the President and former President broadly agree is the national security implications of technology policy: Biden has maintained and expanded many of Trump's first-term restrictions on China's access to sophisticated American technology, and both share a revitalized interest in "reshoring" high-tech manufacturing. While a second Biden administration would put a greater emphasis on working in concert with America's allies on technology policy and would be more open to "friendshoring" key tech production, a second Trump term would be more likely to "go it alone" and would be far more transactional with friend and foe alike.

Trump vs. Biden: The Implications for U.S. Tech Regulation

Rwanda

Congolese soldiers sit in a military vehicle in Kamanyola, a village in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, on Feb. 28, 2024. 

The intensifying fight against M23 rebels in eastern Congo risks triggering border clashes with Rwanda that could threaten Congolese President Tshisekedi's government and risk disrupting Congo's cobalt exports.

Where Is the Conflict in Eastern Congo Headed?

Haiti

A Haitian police officer controls the area around the country's National Palace in Port-au-Prince on May 1, 2024.

The reversal in the transitional council's appointment of a new prime minister highlights political tensions within the governing body, indicating risks of further political instability and violence in the coming months.

Disputes Over a Prime Minister Appointment Bode Ill for Haiti's Stability

Europe

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) reservoirs are seen at the Yamal LNG plant in the port of Sabetta, located on the Yamal Peninsula in northwest Siberia, Russia.

The restrictions would further complicate Russia's efforts to increase LNG production, while having only a limited impact on the EU's natural gas supplies.

The Implications of the EU's Proposed Sanctions on Russian LNG

Tit-for-tat military exchanges between Iran and its proxies against Israel will likely continue, with a constant risk of escalation.

Israel Launches Measured Attack on Iran, but Escalation Risks Remain

Iran will likely respond to Israel's attack, but the scope and size of Iran's response will depend on the scope of Israel's military actions, which is unclear at this time.

Israel Responds to the Iranian Attack

A photo of Singapore's Parliament building against a cityscape.

Singapore's Incoming Prime Minister Brings a Fresh Face to an Old Regime

France's Prime Minister Gabriel Attal (C) speaks during the opening session of "Questions to the Prime Minister" at the French National Assembly in Paris, on April 3, 2024.

To right the sinking ship of France's public finances, Paris must implement unpopular economic measures that could lead to government collapse.

France's Budget Troubles Bode Ill for Macron Ahead of EU Elections

A globe statue is seen at dusk.

As the international system becomes more multipolar, global norms will be increasingly tested, eroded and redefined, creating a more uncertain and volatile world.

Can International Norms Survive in a Multipolar World?

An F-35C Lightning launches Jan. 6, 2022, off the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson. 

Political, financial and economic constraints will continue to limit the U.S. government's flexibility in adjusting spending, resulting in an ongoing rise in federal debt.

The Ongoing Rise of U.S. Debt Amid Geopolitical, Financial and Economic Constraints

Ultra-Orthodox Jews visit Israeli army soldiers to show their support as they deploy at a position near the border with Gaza in southern Israel on Oct. 11, 2023. 

Whether Israel finally scraps its controversial draft exemption for ultra-Orthodox Jews will hinge largely on the evolution of the country's relationship with its neighbors and rivals in the years ahead.

In Israel, Wartime Realities Renew Scrutiny Over Ultra-Orthodox Military Exemptions

Ukraine

Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners fire in the direction of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region on Feb. 20, 2024. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

The second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Putin's upcoming address to the nation offer an ideal occasion to again consider how Russia has and will continue to change as a result of the war.

The Ukraine War's Impact on Russia, Two Years On

Mexico

In the coming years, rising nationalist and anti-globalization ideologies will likely lead to heightened geopolitical competition and trade/technological fragmentation that will impact relations between countries.

Can Globalization Survive in an Increasingly Fragmented World?

A Palestinian demonstrator waves a flag during confrontations with Israeli troops Jan. 6, 2023, in the West Bank village of Kfar Qaddum, near the Jewish settlement of Kedumim. A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

The Distant Prospect of a Palestinian State

Brazil

Chile

Colombia

Honduras

Colombian President Gustavo Petro announced on May 1 that Colombia would break diplomatic ties with Israel over the conflict in the Gaza Strip on May 2, CNBC reported on May 1.

Colombia: President Petro Announces Break of Diplomatic Ties With Israel

Solomon Islands

With support from 31 of 50 lawmakers, the Solomon Islands' former Foreign Minister Jeremiah Manele was sworn in as the country's new prime minister, Nikkei Asia reported on May 2.

Solomon Islands: Incumbent Party Forms Coalition, Elects New Prime Minister

Ethiopia

Tadesse Werede, the vice president of Tigray's interim administration, said Tigray's ruling Tigray People's Liberation Front, or TPLF, had reached an agreement with Ethiopia's federal government to resolve a dispute with the neighboring Amhara region over the status of western and southern Tigray, Addis Standard reported on May 1.

Ethiopia: TPLF Reached Agreement With Federal Government on Western, Southern Tigray 

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan

Afghanistan

The Afghan Taliban, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan agreed to build a logistics hub in the western Afghan province of Herat for regional exports, Reuters reported on May 2. 

Afghanistan: Afghan Taliban Agree With Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan on Logistics Hub

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia increased its arrests of citizens for posting anti-Israel content on social media during the Israel-Hamas war, Bloomberg reported on May 2.

Saudi Arabia: Riyadh Arrests Anti-Israel Activists

Italy

The Italian government will seek to pass legislation by the end of the current parliamentary term in 2027 that returns nuclear power to Italy, Italy's Environment and Energy Security Minister Gilberto Pichetto said during an interview with Radio 24 on May 2.

Italy: Rome To Implement Legislation for Return of Nuclear Power by 2027

Science & Technology

An aerial view shows residential buildings under construction by Chinese real estate developer Vanke in Hangzhou, in eastern China's Zhejiang province, on March 15, 2024. 

Without productivity-enhancing economic reform, China's economic growth will likely continue to slow amid insufficient demand and continued over-investment.

Gauging the Risk of a Systemic Financial Crisis in China

June 9 European Parliament elections will likely see right-wing and far-right parties make significant gains in several EU countries at the expense of center-left and green parties.

2024 Elections: The European Union

Finland

Sweden

Norway

A heavy-lift helicopter operated by the U.S. military flies over a tank in Setermoen, Norway, during a military exercise involving NATO troops and partner countries on March 22, 2022. 

The U.S.'s new pacts with Sweden, Finland and Denmark signal its intent to play a key role in transforming NATO's approach to securing its northern flank against Russia.

The Significance of U.S. Defense Cooperation Agreements in Northern Europe

Ukrainian servicemen fire with a 105mm howitzer toward Russian positions near the city of Bakhmut on March 8, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Ukraine faces immense challenges in 2024 and 2025 that only increased Western support and a new strategy that brings the war inside Russia would be capable of overcoming. 

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: Ukraine's Challenge in 2024 and Beyond

Haiti's transitional presidential council elected former Senate President Edgard Leblanc Fils as the council's president and former Sports Minister Fritz Belizaire as Haiti's new interim prime minister, Reuters reported on April 30. 

Haiti: Transitional Council Chooses Internal President and Interim Prime Minister

South Africa

The South African police are investigating allegations that former President Jacob Zuma's uMkhonto weSizwe, or MK, party forged supporters' signatures to register for the May 29 general election, AP reported on April 30.

South Africa: Police Probe Alleged Signature Forgery by Zuma's MK Party

Former U.S. President Donald Trump suggested in an interview that the United States could pull troops from South Korea over funding disputes, Time reported on April 30.

U.S., South Korea: Trump Suggests He Could Pull Troops Over Base Funding

The United States agreed to reduce licensing requirements for weapons and sensitive technology transfers to the United Kingdom and Australia, Reuters reported on May 1. 

U.S., U.K., Australia: Easing Arms, Technology Transfers Will Boost AUKUS Pillar II

Turkey

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

Under President Khaltmaa Battulga, Mongolia has been deepening its relationship with Russia.

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

Disputes Over a Prime Minister Appointment Bode Ill for Haiti's Stability

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Colombia: President Petro Announces Break of Diplomatic Ties With Israel

Solomon Islands: Incumbent Party Forms Coalition, Elects New Prime Minister

Ethiopia: TPLF Reached Agreement With Federal Government on Western, Southern Tigray

Afghanistan: Afghan Taliban Agree With Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan on Logistics Hub

Saudi Arabia: Riyadh Arrests Anti-Israel Activists

Italy: Rome To Implement Legislation for Return of Nuclear Power by 2027

Haiti: Transitional Council Chooses Internal President and Interim Prime Minister

South Africa: Police Probe Alleged Signature Forgery by Zuma's MK Party

U.S., South Korea: Trump Suggests He Could Pull Troops Over Base Funding

U.S., U.K., Australia: Easing Arms, Technology Transfers Will Boost AUKUS Pillar II

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