Burma is expected to face some tough questions this week as US president Barack Obama makes his second visit to the country in two years – a visit that analysts expect will question an ongoing humanitarian crisis and stalled political reforms ahead of general elections next year.
In Asia as part of his “pivot tour” – a foreign policy attempt to counter China’s dominance across the region – Obama is in Burma for a regional summit just days after meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, and will move on to Brisbane for a G20 summit after a brief meeting on Friday with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
Obama’s last visit to Burma, exactly two years ago this month, was met with various promises from Burma’s “reformist” president Thein Sein, among them a pledge to combat human trafficking and address the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Rakhine state, which has seen over 100,000 Rohingya Muslims flee over the past two years amid fears of persecution.
But to date nearly all of Burma’s pledges have either stalled or gone largely unfulfilled, claim rights groups and even some US agencies, who say Obama should now take a far more serious tone about human rights and perhaps even threaten Burma with a return to full sanctions when the two leaders meet in Naypyitaw for the regional Asean (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) summit.
“The political reform process in Burma is at great risk of deteriorating if religious freedom and the right to equal treatment under the law are not honoured and protected,” the US Commission on International Religious Freedom recently wrote in a report.
“The United States and the international community need to ensure that religious freedom and related human rights remain a high priority in their engagement with the Burmese government, while also assisting those in Burma subject to religious-based issues.”
Observers are at odds over just how much Obama can actually push Thein Sein and attempt to override entrenched army interests, among them a constitution that ensures that one-quarter of all parliamentary seats is reserved for the military.
“If [Obama] pushed too hard, and even issued a veiled warning that the lack of reforms might have consequences, this would put Thein Sein into a corner,” said south-east Asia expert Carl Thayer of Australia’s University of New South Wales at the Australian Defence Force Academy.
“President Obama can only urge Thein Sein to get reforms back on track.”
While there has been some progress since Thein Sein took power in 2011 – political prisoners have been freed; media censorship has been relaxed; and a nominally civilian government has been installed after half a century of brutal military rule — much of the progress has been overshadowed by negative developments, from an ongoing war in Kachin state to the imprisonment of activists and journalists; the recent death of a freelance reporter while in army custody; and recent revelations that Burmese security forces directly profit from the smuggling and trafficking of Rohingya asylum seekers.
A parliamentary committee also voted this summer against changing the constitution to allow Aung San Suu Kyi, who was married to a Briton and endured two decades of house arrest, to stand for office in next year’s general elections. The current constitution bars anyone who has a spouse or children who hold foreign citizenship from running.
Thein Sein has conceded his country faced “trying times” in recent months, but claims to be doing his best to find “common solutions” in an ethnically diverse nation and construct a free society in league with democratic ideals. US politicians have also acknowledged setbacks but note that progress in a country still largely ruled by generals will take a long time to achieve.
“I don’t think we’re going to see breakthroughs in the short term,” US assistant secretary of state for human rights and labour Tom Malinowski told CNN recently. “Burma was an opening to a breakthrough and it’s one that we always knew would take years to move from its starting point to its finishing point.”
Obama is also expected to ask for Aung San Suu Kyi’s take on matters – she recently said that reforms had been “stalling” for the past two years – and determine whether she believes the removal of sanctions, which she long opposed, has benefited the country or if she would suggest further reforms, says Thayer.
But just how seriously Burma itself will take Obama’s visit – and his message – this week is unclear. Burmese politicians have sought to downplay its significance: while Naypyitaw was interested in “improving” US ties, information minister Ye Htut recently told reporters, in no way would Thein Sein “give sole priority” to Obama during the summit.